US Rates (10year yield)
The Captain’s US rates chart.
The Captain is beginning to lean towards the lower rates “alt count”.
Analysis:
Wave i is still underway, as shown on our Daily Chart.
Within wave i, we completed wave (i) at 1.266%, wave (ii) at 0.504, wave (iii) at 4.997% and it is now looking like we are still falling in a more complex wave -e- of (iv), which we are now assuming is complete at the 3.947% low.
We should now be starting to rally higher in wave (v) and within wave (v) we completed wave -i- at 4.161% and wave -ii- at 3.956%, so we should be moving higher in wave -iii-, which has an updated projected endpoint:
-iii- = 4.236-i- = 4.860%
It looks like wave -iii- is subdividing with wave *i* ending at 4.487% and wave *ii* at the 4.226% low. We should now be moving higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
*iii* = 1.618*i* = 5.090%.
We expect higher prices as wave *iii* of -iii-continues to develop. After wave -iii- ends, we expect a wave -iv- drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.
Our projections for the end of wave (v) are:
(v) = 4.997%.
(v) = 1.618(i) = 5.370%!
We are now watching an alternate count that is suggesting that our wave (iv) bullish triangle formation did not end at the 3.947% level and that it is expanding and extending as shown our daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. The internal wave structure of this updated wave (iv) bullish triangle formation looks like:
-a- = 3.603%.
-b- = 4.809%
-c- drop is now underway, and cannot fall below the wave -a- low of 3.603%.
Waves -d- and -e- to go.
Trading Recommendation: Long risking to 3.880%.
Active Positions: Long risking to 3.880%!
Oil
The daily chart.
Analysis:
Wave i ended at the 126.42 high and wave ii correction at the 54.89 low.
We are now moving higher in wave iii, and within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at the 119.43 high, and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has a last retracement level of:
78.6% = 68.70.
Within wave (ii), we completed wave -a- of (ii), at 76.73, and our internal wave structure for wave -b- bearish triangle formation is:
!a! = 117.63.
!b! = 80.56.
!c! = 110.90.
!d! = 85.85.
!e! = 93.64, to complete all of our wave -b- bearish triangle.
We are now thrusting lower in wave -c-, and have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 72.83 low.
After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave (iii).
Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.
Active Positions: Long crude with puts as a stop! Long Suncor!
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Gold
The Captain’s daily gold chart.
Analysis:
Gold is generally moving in a multi-decade incomplete impulsive fashion, from the 35.20 low made back in 1970. Within this impulsive move, we have the following count:
1 = 1920.80.
2 = 1046.20.
3:
i = 2073.40.
ii = 1614.40
iii:
(i) = 2073.30.
(ii) = 1810.10.
(iii) = 5595.40.
(iv):
-a-:
*a* = 4404.10.
*b* = 5419.30.
*c* = 4099.60, to complete all of wave -a-.
-b-:
*a* = 4889.20.
*b* =4024.00.
*c* rally after wave *b* ends.
(v) rally after wave (iv) ends.
We will provide our projections for the end of wave *c*, in the next day or so.
Wave (iv) is going to become more complex than just a simple 3-wave corrective pattern, as it looks like we only completed wave -a- at the 4099.60 low. If that is the case, we should be moving higher in wave -b-, which could rally to or even exceed the all time high of 5595.50 before it ends.
After wave -b- ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave -a- low of 4099.60. The other option to watch is that wave (iv) is becoming a large bullish triangle, with likely only wave -a- ending at the 4024.00 low, and it this case, we will not be re-visiting the wave -a- low of 4099.60 again, before this correction ends
The initial target for the end of wave -b- in the bullish triangle formation option would be the red downtrend line shown in our Daily Gold Chart which is around $5100/$5200. Wave -b- could also exceed the all-time high before it ends also.
We are also now watching a couple of alternate counts as follows:
- Red No. 1: Wave -a- ended at the 4024.00 low and we are now moving higher in wave -b-.
- Purple No. 2: All of wave (iv) ended at the 4024.00 low.
After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally to all time new highs in wave (v).
Trading Recommendation: Flat!
Active Positions: Flat!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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