Rarely as has occured across 17 years of composing The Gold Update, we are having one of those Bob Hope moments. Roll the tape, Squire:
- “Boy, Did I Get a Wrong Number!” –[Bob Hope, Elke Sommer, Phyllis Diller, U.A., ’66]
“And a hilarious movie, mmb!”
Indeed so, Squire, but not so hilarious here, given the last two weeks our having become more stridently Gold bullish in seeking a near-term number of 4404. Rather, Gold continues hoping to cope with its ongoing negative downslope. Priced at 4129 per our prior penning, this past week the yellow metal got floored from its bed to instead trade as low as 3963 toward settling yesterday (Friday) at 4023. ‘Twas Gold’s tenth down week in the last 13.
Thus now at 4023, Gold is -28% below its record high of 5586 (29 January). But to further foul the fallout, a fine friend (and illustrious investor here) sees the present price pattern as potentially repeating the four-year 2011-2015 pathway of -45%. Fortunately, we don’t so think. For that very noun (which we admittedly abhor) “awareness” of Gold remains today well in play, whereas 15 years ago ’twas lacking cachet, (a little French lingo there).
As herein stated ad nauseam this past winter, Gold had “gotten way ahead of itself”. Thus, such -28% decline for high-buying newbie herd followers must be frightful. Yet year-over-year, price actually is up +20.3%. Moreover, today’s 4023 level is neatly sandwiched by the opening Gold Scoreboard between Fair Value (3994) and its BEGOS Market Value (4152). One may even go so far as to say that Gold today is “perfectly priced” as we update our graphic of daily closes from one year ago-to-date, incorporating the grey smooth valuation line — and as a bonus this time ’round — Fair Value throughout:
More specific to the above graphic, Gold is easily within its expected weekly trading range (244 points) of swiftly achieving a settle back above the smooth valuation line. What then happens? Having recently completed a 25-year study of the Market Value price-leading aspects for all five primary BEGOS components, Gold’s “maximum average” upside continuance upon crossing above the smooth line has been +4.3%. To be sure, “maximum average” hardly is perfectly predictive; yet in that vacuum, such increase above Gold’s current BEGOS Market Value of 4152 would yield 4331 perhaps within a period of three weeks … just in case you’re scoring at home. (Then, as charter reader JGS of the first Gold Update would say: “And that’s before the overshoot.”)
“Perfectly priced” or otherwise, we’re still in the near-term Gold bounce camp, so-called “Dollar Strength!” be damned. The Buck this past week hits its lowest “Dixie” level (100.145) since that ending 19 June. Too, from the “Short-Term Memory Dept.” despite all the ballyhoo of Oil getting the Dollar a war bid, the “Dixie” today (100.565) is -8.6% below its January 2025 high of 110.015.
‘Course, because Gold decidedly has been trending down, our bullish bent remains a bit optimistic until price truly turns. Indeed turning to Gold’s year-over-year weekly bars, the red-dotted parabolic Short trend just completed its 18th week, tying for fourth in duration century-to-date, (which again for you WestPalmBeachers down there means from 01 January 2001 through today). Whilst “the market is never wrong”, for the Gold bull ’tis a cascade of “wrong” numbers:
Yet suddenly, is it all going “right” for the Fed? Is the pressure off to raise the Funds rate come the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee vote on 29 July? Can they instead simply enjoy summer down in the easy chair since they 
“…ain’t goin’ nowhere…”
–-[Dylan, ’67]?
To wit, the June inflation numbers thus far: at the retail level the Consumer Price Index deflated -0.4%, as at the wholesale level did the Producer Price Index by -0.3%. And as herein noted a week ago, the “Fed-favoured” Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation gauge shan’t be released until the day after the meeting, (barring the Bureau of Economic Analysis tipping them off in advance, which surely wouldn’t be cricket). Yet now, you know and we know and everyone from Bangor Maine to Honolulu knows the FOMC for a rate change shall vote “No”.
But there is some mildly negative change in direction of the Economic Barometer. Oh to be sure, nine of last week’s large batch of 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics improved period-over-period, the notable Big Winner being June’s Housing Starts which beat both consensus and those for May, even as they were revised higher. But at the other end of the month’s housing spectrum, Building Permits notably slowed, missing consensus with May revised lower, and Pending Home Sales actually shrank at the third worst rate in nearly two years. As for deflation? Again cue Lewis Carroll’s Alice: “Curiouser and curiouser…”:
“But mmb, you’re not really calling for a deflationary depression…”
Merely musing, dear Squire. More likely first would come hyperinflation. Today, were the Fed to “accommodate” the U.S. Treasury with $39.4T such as to retire its debt, that added to the current liquid money supply (“M2”) of $23.3T would bring the total to $62.7T. Clearly a $7.6T international portion of could would make its way from the U.S. Regardless, such spike of “M2” would revalue Gold by Fair Value from today’s $3,994/oz. to $10,754/oz. With such inevitability (or portion thereof) waiting in the wings, obviously Gold’s most shining days are ahead. And “The When” is hastening.
As to “The Now”, here next we’ve Gold’s two-panel graphic featuring the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. And do those “Baby Blues” ever look confused in depicting the consistency of the regression trend. ‘Tis first about saving the 4000s. Overhead resistors, however, are as labeled in the Profile:
The sole positive about Silver’s graphic being essentially identical to that of Gold is evidence of her being donned in her precious metal pinstripes, (rather than in her industrial metal jacket when cavorting about with Cousin Copper). That said, Copper’s regression trend (per the website) has just rotated to positive; let’s see if that influences Sister Silver in the new week:
Here now is the stack:
The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long: 4611
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4152
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4136 and rising
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4082
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4035 / 4067 / 4083 / 4096
Gold Currently: 4023, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 100 points)
Trading Support: per the Market Profile: 4001
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3994
10-Session directional range: down to 3966 (from 4213) = -247 points or -5.9%
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240
To close, we remain mindful of the S&P “Casino” 500’s excessive (understatement) overvaluation, the price/earnings ratio at this writing (per the opening Scoreboard) at 44.9x, (i.e. double, indeed triple, as was taught in portfolio theory). And to that point, we always are heartened when today’s shrewd (i.e. “rare”) analyst senses same. Hat-tip Oxbow’s Ted Oakley, the wealth manager wary of a -40% correction. Where would that be elicited on our ever-daunting 53-year graphic of the S&P? Here ’tis per the blue line labeled at 4572, (-40% below the record high of 7620)…
…which is basically spot-on the top of the yellow regression channel. Folks, you canNOT make this stuff up!
So notwithstanding coping with Gold’s downsloping, our hope is your hanging onto Gold when all else is folding!
Cheers!
…m…
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