The trend on or after the Federal Reserve meeting on 17th June is the key for gold and silver from a short-term trend perspective. All the price falls (if any) before the Federal Reserve meeting will be a part and parcel of the medium-term bullish trend. If, however, there is a fall after the June FOMC meeting, then short-term traders and medium-term investors (both) will be exiting their precious metal investment.
The USA is seeing some good manufacturing growth. The USA under Trump will continue to see a rising trajectory in manufacturing-led growth for the rest of his tenure. ISM-Manufacturing will see a northward direction for the rest of Trump’s presidency. The USA and China will buy every available surplus of every non-ferrous metal, precious metal, and rare earth. The bearish trend will be short-lived and will be accompanied by a bigger bullish trend. (My personal view is that Trump 2.00 wants to convert USA into a manufacturing powerhouse. Trade tariff war and future moves by Team Trump will align to make USA, the global manufacturing hub for the next decade (2030 and onwards).
Let’s look at the Daily High-Low price difference in near-dated CME GOLD futures between February 2026 to May 2026. I have ignored January 2026 as I wanted to avoid the hyper-bullish price run in January 2026.
- Average high-low gap in May: $110.20
- Average high- low gap between Feb to May 26: $148.80.
- Highest high- low gap between Feb to May 26: $482.40.
- Lowest high- low gap between Feb to May 26: $57.70.
There are people who are worried as to why the gold price is not rising in the short term. The above graph makes me believe that a daily high-low gap of over $150.00 for ten consecutive trading sessions is needed for the gold price to attract short-term hot money in gold and a FOMO rally. The whole world knows that near-dated CME gold futures have a big support between $3950-$4250 wider support zone for the long term. It will be very difficult for near-dated CME gold futures to see a sustained fall below the $3950-$4250 zone.
My biggest worry for all asset classes is the unthinkable rise in AI stocks and AI-related stocks. Precious metals and Non-Ferrous metals will see a crash if and only if there is a short-term bearish trend in AI stocks and AI-related stocks.
US May Non-Farm Payroll should beat street expectations by a big margin. Precious metals and US bond yield will be impacted by the US May employment rate and less by headline Focus. Intraday traders remain on the sidelines for the next two weeks. Follow a Rule-Based trading/investing for the rest of the year.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $75.24
- 100 day simple MA: $78.23
- 50 DAY SIMPLE MA: $77.01
- 200 DAY SIMPLE MA: $72.12.
- TODAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $75.31 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $77.37, $78.50 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if and only if spot silver trades below $74.78 after London open and till days close to $73.56, $$72.07 and more.
- Watch $75.31. Spot silver can move $3.00 either side from $75.31 today and tomorrow.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low risk traders and low risk takers trading in silver (spot, future and ETFs) should preferably be an intraday trader till end June. I expect a big gap open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till end June in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please asses your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trade in silver or trade in silver future in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade on India’s MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India’s MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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