Oct 26, 2025
US Dollar:
The Captain’s weekly US dollar chart.
Analysis:
The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 98.94, closing at 98.74.
We continue to work on a very large wave B bearish triangle and within that triangle all of wave ^c^ ended at the 114.75 high. We are falling in wave ^d^.
Wave ^d^ cannot fall below the wave ^b^ low of 71.46 for this triangle formation to remain valid. Wave ^d^ needs to consist of at least one abc pattern but can have up to 3 such patterns.
We have made a major revision to the internal wave structure of wave ^d^ and now believe that it will consist of at least 2 three wave patterns as follows:
a = 100.35.
b triangle = 102.78.
c = 98.94.
x = 110.02
a = 96.00
b is now underway.
After our second wave b ends, we expect a drop in our second wave c.
Active Positions: Short, risking to 104.00!
Oil:
The Captain’s weekly oil chart.
Analysis:
Our internal wave count for wave ii to looks like::
(a) = 92.93.
(b) = 123.18.
(c) diagonal triangle:
-i- = 63.64.
-ii- = 95.03.
-iii- = 55.12.
-iv- = 78.40.
-v- is still underway, with a minimum target of 55.12.
It is looking like wave -v- may also be an ending diagonal triangle formation… and that remains incomplete.
After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave iii, and we will provide our projected endpoint for its completion after wave ii ends.
There is an outside chance that all of wave -v- and wave ii may have ended at the 55.98 low, with only a break of the 65.98 high confirming that to be the case.
We did have a key weekly reversal higher this past week.
In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:
C = A = 153.77.
C = 1.618A = 244.78!
Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as our stop. Long Suncor!
Gold:
The Captain’s weekly gold chart.
Analysis:
Gold was initially higher again this past week, reaching another all-time high at 4381.40, but after that high was made we moved sharply lower… reaching a low of 4004.30, closing at 4112.80!
Our current long-term gold count starting from the 35.20 low made back in 1971 (which remains incomplete) is here:
1 = 1920.80.
2 = 1046.20.
3:
i = 2073.40.
ii = 1614.40.
iii:
(i) = 2073.30.
(ii) = 1810.10.
(iii):
-i- = 2790.40.
-ii- = 2539.90.
-iii- = 3500.30.
-iv- = 3280.60.
-v- = 4381.40, to complete all of wave (iii).
We are falling in a multi-month wave (iv) correction that has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 3774.60.
38.2% = 3399.20.
Within wave (iv) we likely completed wave -a- and the 4004.30 low and if that is the case, we are now moving higher in wave -b-. It is still too early to determine which form wave (iv) will take but based on the formation of wave (ii), we should expect wave (iv) to become either a bullish triangle, flat or irregular type correction…
Where in the latter formation gold will make another all-time high in wave -b-, before it falls again into our suggested retracement zone.
A projection for the end of wave iii is:
iii = 4.236i = 5965.60.
Projections for the end of wave 3 are:
3 = 2.618(1) = 5936.00.
3 = 4.236(1) = 9033.60.
There is still an outside chance that wave -v- and (iii) are going to move substantially higher and in that case, likely only wave *i* of -v- of (iii) may have ended at the 4381.40 high and if that is the case then we would now be falling in a wave *ii* correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the wave *i* rally, with retracement levels noted in our Daily Post.
We exited all long positions. We entered these positions in late 2015. It’s not a top call. Our profits were so large that we had to book them!
Active Positions: Flat.
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.captainewave.com
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