The gold and silver prices sold off sharply again today, with the gold futures currently down $105 to $5,021, while the silver futures are down another $4.66 to $80.46.
Before we dig in, I’d like to apologize to our daily subscribers who did not receive yesterday’s column. It was written, edited, and ready to go, but while I thought I’d hit send, apparently I didn’t.
However, for what it’s worth, here’s what I had planned to send out yesterday regarding the gold and silver pricing, and you’ll see that what we’re seeing today is a continuation of that.
The gold and silver prices had been rallying since after midnight on the East Coast last night, but then had a sell-off around 9 AM that has left the gold price lower, and the silver price flat on the day.
The gold futures had been up to $5,198, but are now trading at $5,150, while the silver futures were back over $87 but are back down to $85.68, as the oil tankers are getting blown up in the Strait of Hormuz.
Especially if you were expecting the gold and silver prices to rise following the outbreak and then escalation of the Iran war, obviously that has not been the case over the past two weeks.
It’s actually not quite as uncommon a reaction in the precious metals markets as you might expect, although in addition to writing about why I thought the metals haven’t reacted more to the war earlier this week, I also did talk about that yesterday on our YouTube channel.
As for the oil tanker getting blown up, if you have not yet seen the footage of it exploding, and you’re able to stomach such a thing, it’s quite stunning in its own right (and you can click on the tweet to see the video).
Meanwhile, the new Supreme Leader of Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as leverage, and today Brent Crude closed above $100 again.
Then, add on that three more ships were struck in the Persian Gulf, and that Iran is now warning about $200 oil.
So perhaps it’s safe to say that things don’t seem to be going particularly well there right now.
Sadly, the injuries and casualties on the U.S. side are starting to add up, of course in addition to the casualties on the ground in Iran.
The latest PCE inflation numbers got released this morning, and while the PCE came down from 2.9% to 2.8%, the core PCE rose from 3% to 3.1%, both well in excess of the Fed’s 2% mandate, and that was from before the oil price surged.
U.S. President Donald Trump also mentioned at one point that he is not concerned, especially because the U.S. has plenty of firepower and ‘plenty of time,’ with the part about the time suggesting that there is at least a possible scenario in which this could go on for quite a while. This also means that inflation could be even more problematic than previously thought, at a time when the Trump administration was counting on lower interest rates, and after we just saw job creation go negative in last week’s labor report (while the warnings that AI is about to cause further problems in the labor market continue to emerge).
The Trump administration is also launching probes into multiple countries, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting that by August they will have the tariffs back to the levels that they were at prior to the Supreme Court ruling.
But throughout all of the ups and downs, the Chinese central bank just keeps buying gold.
Obviously, there’s been a lot going on lately, but remember that as each day ticks off the calendar, we’re getting closer to a likely Kevin Warsh Fed. And if Warsh plans to go along with Trump’s interest rate preferences, which Trump himself has said is likely, that will just be more fuel added to the fire over the next few months.
My guess is that there will be a day, probably in our not-too-distant future, when there is a significant move higher in the gold and silver pricing after some event occurring in the Middle East. Obviously that didn’t happen, but hopefully you’re about to get away from your computer and enjoy your weekend, remembering how fortunate we are if you are able to be reading this someplace where you and your family are safe.
So take good care of yourself out there, and I’ll look forward to checking back in with you…
Sincerely,
Chris Marcus
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