Asian Metals Market Update for 25th September 2026

Copper is the talk of the investment clown. This clown will talk about copper:

• Big gap is there between current price and fifty day ma.

• Time Period: 2^nd December (2024) to 24^th September (2026).
• A convergence between the 50-day simple moving average and daily closing price is needed for a sharp sell-off, a crash, or a bearish trend in copper and/or anything traded.
• The convergence between the 50-day MA and the closing price in copper is limited to a very few consecutive days. This itself indicates that there is more buying interest than short-selling interest in copper.
• Even a minimal daily gap reduction (between 50 day ma and the daily closing price) for ten consecutive trading sessions (if there is a bull run) will suggest either a short-term top being formed and/or a short-term bearish trend. This has happened very rarely.

COPPER – ALUMINUM RATIO ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS – LME

• Time Period: 9^TH December (2025) to 24^th September 2026.
• 50 day simple ma: 4.36
• 100 day simple ma: 4.15
• 200 day simple ma: 4.05
• HG-AL (LME) RATIO LAST TRADED PRICE: 4.50
• This indicates that the Copper-Aluminum Ratio (LME) has to trade below 4.36 (fifty-day simple moving average) for seven to ten consecutive trading sessions for a short-term bearish phase or a crash. (Assuming there is no major disruption in copper mine supplies.)

China is closed from 1^st October to 7^th October. This will be followed by the LME Week. Views from LME Week in October will only have a short-term impact on copper and non-ferrous metals.

The graph below, taken from social media, suggests a looming physical shortage of copper.

CHINA COPPER PREMIUM HAS ZOOMED – THIS GRAPH FROM SOCIAL MEDIA SUGGESTS

Below are the data on copper stocks in a Reuters.com report on Monday/21^st September.

The clearest signal of tightness is on the LME itself. Cash copper is now trading at a $26 a tonne premium to the three-month contract, a backwardation that has swung from an $86 discount only a week ago. Buyers paying more for metal today than for delivery in three months’ time means they cannot wait, and the exchange’s stocks show why: of the 255,900 tonnes in LME warehouses on Monday, 115,450 tonnes, or 45%, are cancelled warrants already booked for withdrawal, after another 9,600 tonnes were cancelled in Asia. Metal actually available to the market has shrunk to 133,725 tonnes.

The other side of the ledger is the United States. Comex warehouses hold 696,204 tonnes, some 69% of all exchange-monitored copper, after importers rushed metal in ahead of tariffs that Washington has yet to impose. That pile is no longer growing: stocks slipped by 65 tonnes last week, the first weekly decline since April, according to The Copper Journal, and the spot premium of Comex over LME has narrowed to about 1.6 cents a pound so far in September, the tightest since April.

(The above has been copied from an article on Reuters.com. The above is not my view. Please note.)

MY VIEW ON COPPER

I only look at the pace of the rise of copper, non-ferrous metals, and even precious metals. Long-term fundamentals are a one-way bullish bet. BUT I am spooked that the key reason for the current copper price rise is largely due to an increase in copper in CME warehouses and other unknown warehouses in the USA. An increase in copper tariffs in the USA by the Trump administration in 2027 and 2028 is the reason why everyone in the USA is stashing up physical copper. If US President Trump wants to, then he can cause a collapse in copper prices at any time by saying that proposed higher customs duties WILL NOT be imposed. This is a very big hidden risk. Physical buyers and sellers either hedge in futures and/or be vigilant every day.

The world is not talking about a slowdown or a recession caused by rising prices in crude oil and rising industrial inputs from the Iran war. Crude oil price spikes and industrial input spikes have a lagging impact on the global economy. I prefer to be cautious on the global economy from a fundamental perspective. The world does not know what Mr.Trump will do once the US Senate elections are over.

I prefer to look at support. For Copper LME, the long-term support is around $12600. Corrections up to $12600 (in the next eight months) will be a part and parcel of the long-term bullish trend. If something is fundamentally bullish, I prefer to ignore the short-term noise and short-term technical breakdown.

Final quarter position squaring and rebuilding has started and will continue till 5^th October. Short-term traders of precious metals need to be cautious. Just focus on short-term support and medium-term support and take decision.

Spot Silver – Current Market Price $63.61

• 50 day simple MA: $64.79
• 100 day simple MA: $63.65
• 200 day simple MA: $70.99
• Key intraday resistance: $65.10
• Key intraday support: 62.30 (one hundred percent retracement support.)
• TODAY: Spot silver has to trade over $63.65 today and next week to rise to $66.69, $68.48 and more. A crash or sell-off will occur if spot silver trades below $63.65 today whole day and Monday, with $62.30 as key support.
• Spot silver can move $2-$3 either side of the fifty-day simple moving average around $63.65.
• Silver is in a no man’s land. I will prefer to be extra cautious on my intraday trades.
• A daily close below $62.30 for five consecutive trading sessions is needed for a short-term bearish phase.
• Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
• Currently, silver volatility is very high. Avoid extreme risk-taking while doing intraday trades in silver.
• Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders.
• A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
• Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
• Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trading in silver or trade in silver futures on any commodity exchange of the world.

Disclosure: I trade in India’s MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India’s MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE