The next ten days are very crucial for all asset classes, and not just precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Why? (i) Federal Reserve meeting. (ii) Trump’s initial three-week time to create a new puppet government in Iran ends. (iii) Traders will start assessing the short-term economic damage after ten days. (iv) Quarter-end position squaring and quarter-end rebuilding will start anytime in the next ten days.
Why is the gold price not rising despite the Iran war and the rise in crude oil prices? The answer is to look at the gold-crude oil ratio as one of the reasons.
The chart below is based on the closing price of the last trading day of each month of near-dated CME gold futures and WTI/Nymex Crude oil futures, with the 13th March (2026) closing price ratio as the last one.
I am not trying to use too much data. Just using the end-of-the-month CME closing gold/crude oil ratio for a small idea. The CME Gold/crude oil ratio has to fall below 40.00 and remain below 40 for a few months for a stagflation environment and even a prolonged recession. If not, then central banks have a lot of tools to ensure a quick reversal to growth and/or be satisfied with a mild slowdown.
Asian central bank gold purchases could slow down a bit as focus will be on managing the current account deficit for the next six months.
There can be some distressed sales and even some net outflows from gold ETFs by retail investors to meet the sudden rise in the cost of living.
Overall, I believe that spot gold price crash (up to) $4100-$4300 zone will be a part and parcel of the 2025 bullish trend with infinity as price target. If I rephrase for the gold bears, spot gold has to trade below $4300 for three weeks to five consecutive weeks for a big crash.
There is a lot of speculation of a 0.50% surprise interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. If it happens, then the chance of a big rally will be there in gold and silver. Short sellers need to keep on booking profits until the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting.
The crude oil price trajectory is the key. The world knows that no one can defeat the armed forces of Iran. There will be long-term repercussions on selected sectors even if the Iran War ends today. The biggest beneficiary will be ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, silver, and all precious metals.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $79.96
- 50 day simple MA: $87.39
- 100 day simple MA: $77.23
- TODAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $78.54 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $86.60 and more.
- Mild sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $78.54.
- $77.23 is the crash point for spot silver.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (May 26) Current Market Price $97.28
- Crude oil has to trade over $95.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $106.00, $116.20 and more.
- Mild sell off will be there if crude oil trades below $95.00.
- Crash or sell off will be there if crude oil does not break $112.30 and also trades over $112.30 by Thursday close or 19th March close.
- Intraday traders Watch $95.00. Crude Oil April future can move $12-$15 either side from $95.00.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India’s MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India’s MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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