Let’s start with how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implied less than two days ago that a deal with China was getting close, as was de-escalation of tariffs. Then, President Trump said recently that talks with China are in progress:
“Well, they had a meeting this morning… we may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.”
Trump added, when asked for more details:
“…it doesn’t really matter who ‘they’ are.”
Well, maybe it does matter because the “they” that is China replied to all of this, solidly confirming my earlier take on it:
China on Thursday said that there were no ongoing discussions with the U.S. on tariffs, despite indications from the White House this week that there would be some easing in tensions with Beijing.
“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed….
The Commerce Ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.
Then, Minister of Commerce Yadong offered China’s only solution:
“If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.
Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.
In other words, “Cancel your tariffs first, and then we’ll talk.” Everything said by the Trump administration about a deal progressing with China and talks with China was a flat-out lie.
Nevertheless, stocks gained because of the president’s words, because lies sell. So, that’s all that matters in Pretend World.
Trade talks with the world’s second-largest economy are not happening. Instead …
China earlier this week threatened countermeasures against countries that might make deals with the U.S. at the expense of Beijing’s interests.
“We also need to recognize that this is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for China in terms of U.S.-China relations,” Su said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if China adopts a more hawkish stance if the U.S. continues to escalate tensions.”
Trump can spin it like a piano, but keep reading here for the actual news, even though the stock market clearly prefers to focus on the words investors glean from the White House if those words give them any reason to hope greedy days are here again.
Drilling for truth
As another example of the difficulty of drilling through the overburden to find the golden truth, take Trump’s promise that, from his inauguration forward, it was going to be “drill, Baby, drill” for the oil industry. Markets slavered all over those words, and, so, the stocks of major oil producers soared, but I’ll ask, “How’s that working out for you now?” Because when markets choose to rise on vain promises, they ultimately collapse because there was nothing there. Hope only floats so long.
Let me answer how it is actually going now:
“Drill, Baby Drill” has morphed rapidly into “Wait, Baby, Wait”:
[Trump’s] Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, the former CEO of Denver-based Liberty Energy, also vowed that Trump’s energy policies would create a “golden age” for the U.S. oil and natural gas industry.
Within the first few months of Trump’s new administration, the opposite has been true, with layoffs increasing, rig counts dropping, and industry executives expressing alarm.
After Trump was reelected, “the initial mood in the industry was euphoric” [as happens when markets are easily manipulate by being told what the want to hear] because the industry believed the administration was “pro-energy,” Odessa-based Latigo Petroleum president Kirk Edwards said. “But within the first few months, a different set of challenges emerged. Tariffs have driven up the cost of drilling, squeezing margins just as operators look to expand.”
The Trump administration pushing OPEC to increase production in an already oversupplied global market contributed to oil prices plummeting. “This sharp price decline has thrown U.S. producers into limbo,” Edwards said. Trump’s mantra, “Drill, baby, drill,” turned into “wait, baby, wait,” he said. As a result, the industry isn’t adding rigs to drill when “price signals are so unclear,” The Center Square reported.
Chaos.
(Still wishing I had called 2025 “The Year of Chaos,” rather than 2024 (thinking particularly post-election 2024), but, hey, better a two months early than late, I suppose).
The rig count has dropped under the Trump administration, with the biggest losses reported in Texas, the oil and natural gas capital of the U.S. As of March 28, there were 290 rigs in Texas, down from 376 in March 2024, according to newly released Baker Hughes data.
“The U.S. shale industry faces significant challenges as production issues and economic pressures rise,” Linhua Guan, CEO of Houston-based Surge Energy, said in a social media post….
“You’ve really got to hunker down. You may have to lay off some people. You’ve got to focus on your best prospects. We’ll see what happens over the next two or three years,” Bloomberg News reported.
A very far cry from the Trumpian promise, but it is exactly where I said tariffs would take the entire US economy, except that this example is playing out in the oil plays of America, where Trump had promised the biggest moves into his new “Golden Age for America.”
Ironically, under Biden, of all things (because I can’t stand the guy) …
The Texas oil and natural gas industry in the last two years reported record production and for many months was adding jobs and leading the U.S. in job creation, The Center Square reported. In March, it reported a loss of 700 jobs in the upstream sector – the sector that drills primarily in the oil rich Permian Basin, The Center Square reported.
Also last month, BP announced it was shedding 7,700 jobs globally and shifting roughly 1,100 U.S. based jobs to Hungary, India and Malaysia, Pipeline & Gas Journal reported….
Uncertainty in the industry continued after Liberty Energy [where Trump’s energy secretary of golden promises was CEO] published its first quarterly earnings report showing a profit of $165 million, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022. “Net income (after taxes) totaled $20 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $82 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $52 million in the fourth quarter of 2024,” it said.
Its new CEO Ron Guzek said, “In recent months, tariff announcements and a more aggressive OPEC+ production strategy have sent ripples across the energy sector….”
U.S. oil and gas executives are overall expressing pessimism, according to a Dallas Fed survey. The company outlook index decreased by 12 points; the outlook uncertainty index increased by 21 points.
It’s chaos on the oil plays of America.
Read the full article here