US Dollar
Analysis:
All of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are falling in wave ^d^. Within wave ^d^, we have adopted our alternate count as preferred, which is suggesting that all of wave a ended at 100.42 and we are moving higher in that tail end of wave b.
Within wave b, we completed wave -a- at 107.05 and wave -b- at 99.86 and we have adopted our count for wave -c-, as shown on our chart.
Our retracement levels for all of wave b are:
50% = 107.59.
61.8% = 109.28.
We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave b… and the start of major drop in wave c.
We will provide an updated projection for the of wave c, after we believe that all of wave b is complete!
Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 109.00.
Active Positions: Short, risking to 109.00!
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US 10 Year Bond Yield
Analysis:
The US 10-year Bond Yield has completed wave i at the 5.021% high and we are correcting that 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 2.698%.
61.8% = 2.155%.
We are current working on the assumption that our internal wave count for wave ii to is suggesting that wave (a) ended at 3.785% and that wave (b) has become a bearish triangle formation that is still underway as shown on our chart.
After wave -c- ends we expect another drop in wave -d-, which will then be followed by another wave -e- rally to complete all of our wave (b) bearish triangle.
The alternate count is that all of wave ii is complete at the 3.603% low and that interest rate cuts have ended and that long term rates will start to climb again sharply in wave iii.
After wave (b) ends we expect a final drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave ii.
Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 5.050%.
Active Positions: Short, risking to 5.050%!
Gold:
Analysis:
We continue to rally in wave .v. of -iii-. Within wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80. We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a projected endpoint of:
^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3101.20.
Our preferred count (barely), is that within wave !iv!, wave @a@ ended at the 2536.90 low and wave @b@ at 2726.30. If that is the case then we are falling in wave @c@, which has a minimum target of the wave @a@ low of 2536.90.
The other option is that wave @b@ is going to become more complex and continue higher to create a flat corrective pattern for wave !iv!.
Wave @b@ could even reach all-time new highs in this corrective pattern, before it ends.
Other alternate counts to consider are:
Red Alternate 1: Wave !iv! ended at the 2536.90 and we are moving higher in wave !v!.
Purple Alternate 2: Wave !iv! is becoming a bullish triangle with wave @a@ ending at 2536.90, wave @b@ at 2726.30 and we are falling in wave @c@, with waves @d@ and @e@ still to develop. In this case wave @c@ cannot fall below the wave @a@ low of 2536.90 for this pattern to remain valid.
Our projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90!
We still expect higher prices as wave !iii! continues to develop. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave !iii! rally.
Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as our stops!
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Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.captainewave.com
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