S&P500 Chart
Analysis:
We are now working on the assumption that wave -iv- ended at 5402.62 and we are now moving higher in wave .iii. of -v-, as shown on our 60 Min SP500 Chart, which has an updated projected endpoint of:
.iii. = 2.618.i. = 6795.68.
Within wave .iii. we have updated the completion of wave $i$ to 5866.42 and wave $ii$ to 5700.22, so we should be moving higher in wave $iii$, which has an updated projected endpoint of:
$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 6450.65.
We expect higher prices as wave $iii$ of .iii. of -v- continues to develop…
Before it all melts away!
Trading Recommendation: Flat
Active Positions: Flat!
US Dollar:
Analysis:
All of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are now falling in wave ^d^. Within wave ^d^, we have adopted our very bearish alternate count which is suggesting that wave a ended at 100.42 and wave b at 107.05. We are now falling in wave c, which has a current projected endpoint of:
c = 1.618a = 84.28.
With wave c, we completed wave -i- at 100.32 and wave -ii- at 106.38 and we are now falling in wave -iii-, which has a current projected endpoint of:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 95.47.
Within wave -iii-, we have adjusted our count to suggest that all of wave $i$ ended at 99.86, and that we are now rallying in wave $ii$, which has the following last retracement level:
78.6% = 104.98.
We have now exceeded our 78.6% retracement level, so unless we turn down sharply now, we doubt that our current short-term analysis is correct, so we will likely be moving our alternate count to preferred in the next day or so.
Our alternate count is suggesting that wave b is not complete at the 107.05 high and instead is becoming a bearish triangle as shown on our Daily USDX Chart. In this count, within wave b, we completed wave -a- at 107.05 and wave -b- at 99.86, and perhaps wave -c- at the 105.35 high.
Wave -c- cannot rally above the wave -a- high of 107.05, for this triangle option to still be valid. If wave -c- is now complete at the 105.35 high then we be starting to fall wave -d-, which cannot drop below the wave -b- low of 99.86.
Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 107.10.
Active Positions: Short risking to 107.10!
We are working on the assumption that wave -iv- ended at 5402.62 and we are now moving higher in wave .iii. of -v-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
.iii. = 1.618.i. = 6263.57.
Within wave .iii. we completed wave $i$ at 5725.84 and wave $ii$ at 5674.00, so we should be moving higher in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 6196.97.
We expect higher prices as wave .iii. of -v- continues to develop.
We have also just introduced an alternate count which is suggesting that all of wave -v- and v are complete at the 5878.46 high, as shown on our 120 Min SP500 Chart.
We will be watching this alternate count carefully!
Trading Recommendation: Stay flat (but not for much longer).
Active Positions: Flat but watching for a trigger to go short!
Gold:
Analysis:
We continue to rally in wave .v. of -iii-. Within wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80. We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a projected endpoint of:
^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3101.20.
Wave ^iii^ is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 2151.20 and wave -ii- at the 1973.10 low. We are rallying in a subdividing wave -iii- with wave $i$ ending at 2088.50, wave $ii$ at 1984.30, wave $iii$ at the 2431.50 high, and our wave $iv$ bullish triangle at the 2277.60 low.
We are now thrusting higher in wave $v$, which has a projected endpoint:
$v$ = 1.618(2431.50-1973.10) = 3035.50.
Within wave $v$, we completed wave *i* at the 2483.70 high and wave *ii* at the 2353.20 low, so we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has a projected endpoint of:
*iii* = 2.618*i* = 2850.40.
Within wave *iii*, we completed wave !i! 2477.70 and wave !ii! at 2364.40 and we are now rallying higher in wave !iii!, which is likely heading to our next projected endpoint of:
!iii! = 4.236!i! = 2891.80.
Within wave !iii!, we completed wave @i@ at 2570.40, wave @ii@ at 2502.70, wave @iii@ at 2685.40, and wave @iv@ at 2604.20. We are now look to have completed wave @v@ and !iii! at the 2790.10 high.
We are now falling in wave !iv! which has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 2689.60.
38.2% = 2627.48.
We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave !iv! and the start of another rally in wave !v!.
We think the development of wave !iv! should take longer, but based on price targets, it does not need to.
Wave !iv! could still become a bullish triangle formation.
Our projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90!
We still expect higher prices as wave !iii! continues to develop. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave !iii! rally.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.captainewave.com
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